Last month, former President Trump’s national security advisor H.R. McMaster advised the U.S. Senate that the CCP could invade Taiwan very soon, the most dangerous time being now, the Beijing Olympics of 2022 and the CCP’s twice-a-decade national congressional meeting both having been completed. McMaster’s statement has drawn a lot of international attention and discussions. Will the CCP really invade Taiwan? How soon? Insights from a true insider could show an interesting timeline unintentionally revealed by the CCP itself.
First, how eager really is the CCP, or it’s head Xi Jinping, to invade Taiwan? Evidence shows very eager. Gordon Chang said in a report that a takeover of Taiwan would almost certainly result in an additional 5 year term for Xi Jinping’s rulership. So for Xi Jinping, personally, there could be a lot of incentive to do so. But a former Naval Lieutenant Colonel has given us more than an insider’s perspective. Yao Cheng is a former lieutenant colonel of the CCP’s naval command. He has served in the CCP’s Navy for more than 20 years, 10 years of which was spent in the CCP’s South China Sea fleet. He also participated in the Johnson South Reef Skirmish, a battle between the CCP and Vietnam in 1988.
Its important to note that the CCP never owned Taiwan. They always use verbiage like “take back” or “liberate” only as an effective way to create a narrative that will have everyone believe that Taiwan belongs to them. Another driving force that no the outside world has failed to notice is the actual need for China to take control the Taiwan Strait. If the CCP can control the Taiwan Strait, it can break through the First Island Chain, gain access to the Pacific Ocean, and break through any future embargo from the West.
If the CCP wants to break through the First Island Chain there are 3 areas that can be considered: the East China Sea, the South China Sea, and the Taiwan Strait. Yao Cheng said:
“the CCP doesn’t have much advantage in the East or South China Sea, as the U.S. and Japan have a strong presence and military capabilities in these two areas. However, if the CCP can take control of the Taiwan Strait it can achieve this purpose all the same. So unifying our country is not the only motivation for the CCP. The CCP has a much bigger goal in its mind, that goal is, control of the Pacific Ocean. If the CCP can have access to the ocean and deploy its deep sea nuclear submarines, it would pose a real threat and deterrence to the U.S. many overseas China experts and researchers have underestimated the CCP’s determination to take over Taiwan.”
So that’s the motive, how about the capability? Many people say that the CCP does not dare to attack Taiwan because it’s military power is too lacking compared to the military capabilities of the U.S. and Taiwan. Yao Cheng does not quite agree with this.
“When the CCP attacks Taiwan it will launch 2 different battles. Battle 1 is called the anti-intervention campaign. It’s main purpose is to prevent the U.S. from intervening in the CCP’s attack against Taiwan. Only battle 2 directly targets Taiwan. Also, the CCP’s invasion of Taiwan will not be done in one go. It is done gradually, by squeezing Taiwan’s space little by little. For example, the CCP’s fighter jets have already crossed the middle line of the Taiwan Strait. The CCP’s next step could be to go to Penghu Islands to harass. Then it could strike at certain military facilities in Taiwan that have an impact on the mainland. It could launch so called “surgical style strikes.”
Yao Cheng continued to say on the program:
“what I’ve learned is the CCP’s first target could be Taiwan’s two high-performance radars, as these radars can clearly detect the movements of most of the planes taking off and landing in China. So the CCP will not tolerate the existence of these radars. That was also the reason why the CCP was so mad when the THAAD system was installed in South Korea a few years ago. Anyway, the CCP’s battle 2 is a gradual process. It will go like this: it takes one step forward, and then pauses to see the reaction of the U.S. and if the U.S. doesn’t maintain a strong enough response, the CCP will take another step forward and project more pressure on Taiwan until it is unable to resist. Once they can’t stand the pressure anymore they will surrender and the CCP will take over.”
As to Battle 1, the CCP’s anti-interventional campaign, Yao Cheng says this campaign is mainly about fighting America’s aircraft carriers, which Yao Cheng has expressed his belief that this won’t be too big of a problem for the CCP, as it has adopted the concept of Saturated Strikes, which means that the CCP will launch not just 1 or 2 missiles, but instead it will launch 100 missiles at the same time, all targeting the same aircraft carrier. Yao Cheng has said the CCP already has enough quality missiles to launch this kind of saturated strike. The idea is, it’s impossible to intercept all of the missiles and a direct hit is almost a 100% surety. Yao Cheng continued by saying that while the CCP does not care about its own casualties or losses, the U.S. does care. If one aircraft carrier sinks, with 5–6000 American soldiers losing their lives, the U.S. won’t be able to stand this kind of loss. So when facing this possibility, the U.S. may choose to back down. By Yao Cheng’s understanding, the CCP doesn’t know for sure if the U.S. will get itself involved in such a war to defend Taiwan and so the CCP will try to keep on testing the Biden Administration to decide what to do next. If the U.S. shows weakness and not enough determination, the CCP will become more aggressive.
The reason why some military experts believe that the CCP won’t dare to attack Taiwan is they think the CCP doesn’t have enough amphibious assault ships. In response to this Yao Cheng said on the program:
“…in fact, the CCP already has 74 large landing ships. It also has many ships that can transport land forces to Taiwan.”
Yao Cheng goes on to speak on the diverse naval
capabilities of China:
“What the outside world doesn’t know much is that apart from its regular navy, the CCP also has its second, and even third navy. The second navy refers to the marine police. They are usually under the jurisdiction of the armed police force, and their daily task is to maintain law and order at sea and to combat illegal and criminal actions at sea. But if a war breaks out, this force can be turned into the second navy in no time.”
So what is the third navy? Yao Cheng said they are Chinese fishermen. The fishermen in the 11 cities along the coast of China have hundreds of thousands of fishing boats. So when a war breaks out, all the civilian and merchant ships can be used to transport soldiers too. The CCP has a system to activate this third navy with no problem at all. The CCP have actually done so before, and used fishermen boats to transport its soldiers in its Battle of Hainan Island in 1950. During this battle the CCP mobilized a total of 2,130 “junk ships” and over 4000 civilian sailors to fight for the CCP.
So when could the CCP attack Taiwan? Yao Cheng agrees with McMaster on this question, in that we are in danger now and going forward, as the 2022 Beijing Olympics and the 20th national congress are complete. In order to seek a third term, Xi Jinping had gone so far as to change the constitution of China, one of his excuses to do this being to “unify Taiwan” and so if he doesn’t unify Taiwan he will lose his power.
If we look at the international environment we can see many countries have suffered very badly because of the CCP virus, or the COVID pandemic, and have lost the interest or ability to contend with the CCP now. On the other hand, although China’s economy also suffered from the pandemic, the setback was not as bad as the rest of the world. In the recent decade leading up to the pandemic the CCP had been building up its military capabilities. very aggressively. A large number of warships and various type of aircraft have been produced. So in terms of the gap between the U.S. and Chinese forces, it may be at its smallest point now. The CCP most likely would not want to lose this “fleeting window of opportunity” as described by McMaster at the Senate hearing.
Recently the CCP released its “National comprehensive three-dimensional transportation network planning outline.”
This is a transportation network plan that is to be built by 2035. This map displays a bridge that connects China to Taiwan. What does this mean? If the CCP doesn’t have sovereignty over a Taiwan it cannot build a bridge to connect Taiwan and mainland China. This is not the first time China has included Taiwan in its infrastructure plans, as they have done so in 2004, 2008, 2009, 2011, 2016, and 2017. However, because of the sensitivity of the situation, this latest plan is being treated more seriously. If the CCP really plans to have such a bridge built by 2035, it has to take over Taiwan by 2025, as a bridge of such a long sea-crossing would take 10 years to construct. The world’s longest bridge now is the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macao bridge.
It is 34 miles long and took 6 years to plan and 9 years to construct. If a similar bridge a going to be built between Taiwan and mainland China, it’s length will be 80 miles. So this could be another sign of the CCP’s determination to invade Taiwan soon.
But the CCP army seems to have a major weakness, that is, the soldiers may not necessarily want to fight and die for the CCP. Soldiers salaries were raised 40% indicating the CCP is attempting to buy their soldiers’ hearts and lives with money. But in the meantime the CCP does not seem to trust their soldiers. Up to now, the CCP’s army People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is still adopting a “separation of gun and bullet” system. Guns and bullets are locked inside different iron cabinets. The windows and doors of the rooms containing these cabinets are also made of iron. The company commander and the instructor each hold a key. One is to the guns and another is to the ammunition. So the storage and management of the guns and ammo is separate. That is to say, the PLA soldiers are on guard against each other. So when war breaks out, will the CCP be able to control everything when both guns and bullets are in the hands of soldiers.
Who can the CCP really trust? Perhaps if the people in Taiwan were to hold up a banner in front of invading Chinese forces, that said “put down your guns, this is your path to the free world” maybe half the soldiers would seek to surrender.
